Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
