Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
